NFL Betting Insights – Week 12

We are not sure why Vegas decided the New York Jets were worthy of laying four points to anyone, but we took advantage last week. It was closer than we would have liked, but a win is a win. The Jets have a bye this week, so it gives us an open board. Check out our NFL betting insights for Week 12 below.

Last Week: Colts +4 – Win

New England Patriots +7.5 at Miami Dolphins

Let’s stay in the division this week. These two teams matched up in week five in New England. Miami finally got into the endzone with just over four minutes left in the game to take a 15-10 win. Tyler Huntley started at quarterback for Miami in that game. Jacoby Brissett was under center for the Patriots. As the final score indicates, neither quarterback did much to distinguish themselves on that afternoon.

Both teams will start different players at quarterback this week. Tua Tagovailoa will start his fifth game since returning from a concussion suffered in week two against Buffalo. The Dolphins are 2-2 in the four games since Tagovailoa’s return. Tua has connected on 73.4% of his passes this season for 1,443 yards. He has thrown nine touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Patriots made the move to first-round pick Drake Maye after losing to the Dolphins in week five. The Patriots are 2-4 since Maye took over the offense. Maye, the third overall pick in last year’s draft, has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,236 yards. He has thrown nine touchdown passes and six interceptions.

The Dolphin’s defense is ranked 9^th overall. The Patriot’s defense is ranked 18^th. The Dolphins allow 22.1 points per game, which puts them 14^th in the league. The Pats allow 22.5 points per game, good for 18^th overall.

The Dolphins are 22^nd in total offense. The Patriots are 31^st overall. Miami is 27^th in scoring with 18.1 points per game. New England scores 16.5 points per game, 31^st in the league. Only the Giants have scored fewer points per game than the Patriots.

The Dolphins have won four of the last five games against the Patriots by an average score of 22.2 – 14.8. Oddly, the average margin of victory is 7.4 points, just under the number for this game.

There is little in the statistics to point to the Patriots covering the number. We don’t care. The Patriots have been more competitive since the move to Drake Maye, and we expect them to be a problem for Miami all day. The Patriots might not get the road win, but we love them to keep this under a touchdown. The hook is a nice plus. Take the Patriots +7.5. If you need a place to play the game and you’re in the UK, try GGBet Sportsbook, they have some nice bonuses available for new players and they are a solid book all around.

Pick: New England Patriots +7.5

Nick Ferraro

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