Well if the wild card round wasn’t amazing and unexpected, I don’t know what is!
After winning the division, the Chicago Bears got taken down by the barely in Philadelphia Eagles by just one point! The Indianapolis Colts walloped the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers got their revenge on the Baltimore Ravens.
We split last week. I recommended taking over 41 and the Chargers +3, and the number landed on 40. Odds at the best online sportsbook are tight, but there should be some value that we can find.
It might come as a surprise, then again, it might not that Drew Brees has opened up as the top favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. But with all of the flip-flopping that we saw in the wild card round, is this enough to blindly back the Saints?
The Eagles haven’t done well against the Saints in recent history. They have lost four out of five to Drew Brees and his men. In addition to that, they have on covered the spread once in those five meetings. The number is beyond a touchdown, so the Eagles have a shot at covering but they are going to have a tough time getting the win. The Saints are scoring over 34 points per game at home. To make matters worse for the Eagles, they are only putting up a little bit over 22 while on the road.
What we can expect out of this meeting is tons of passing. I know that seems like a given with Brees behind center, but the Eagles are way back at No. 31 in passing defense while on the road and the Saints are even worse at stopping the air raid, taking the final No. 32 spot. Conversely, both of these squads excel at stopping the run. Philly is No. 4 in the league as the away team, and NOLA is No. 3.
This one comes down to who has the better QB. And although Foles is good, he is a bit inconsistent. We are going to go against the public who is pounding Philly to cover the 8 point spread and back Drew Brees and Sean Peyton to get a decisive win over the Eagles.
This is an amazing matchup. It’s so good that I feel like no matter what I say, the opposite will occur. Why do I mention this? Well, if you read the last article that I wrote, you might remember how high I was on the Chargers beating the Ravens in Baltimore. The Chargers have only lost one away game this year and it wasn’t even a road game because it was to the Rams in LA. All of their actual road games have been wins and they have covered in six of seven.
Now we have the Gillette Factor. Terrible Tom is truly ‘the best a man can get’ while playing in Foxboro. I don’t really need to go into stats the back up my case for how good the Patriots are at home. But we’ll drop some playoff specific numbers just for fun. The Patriots are 19-3 in postseason home games since 2000 and 8-1 their last over the last nine most recent. But this isn’t what has me leaning towards the Patriots in the matchup.
Now, looking at all of the stats and matchup details, I actually would take the Chargers to cover the 4-point spread. But … They are a true warm-weather team. Can we really expect them to travel across the country twice in two weeks and then beat the King of cold weather teams in sub-freezing conditions?
The high for Sunday is expected to be 29 degrees luckily for the Chargers, it doesn’t look like there will be any freezing rain or snow. But the cold should be enough to slow them down, especially late in the second half. And if there is precipitation, forget about.
The public is all over the LAC to cover more than a field goal, but we have to once again go against them. Take the Pats and the freezing weather.