FOXBORO, MA - NOVEMBER 02: Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots warms up before a game against the Denver Broncos at Gillette Stadium on November 2, 2014 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)
We got another win last week with my pick on the Packers-Jets OVER.
Unfortunately, the Packers got an overtime win, which is exactly the reason I didn’t advise any of you to take Jets against the point spread. You just can’t trust Aaron Rodgers to lose, injured or not. That said, it was a fantastic game, and I’m proud of the Jets and their recent performances. Sam Darnold put up three TDs against no interceptions.
Si, despite the loss, the improvement as a team is showing. And this week the New England Patriots have to try and beat the New York Jets in Foxboro to secure their first-round bye. But they didn’t look particularly good against Josh Allen and the Bills, so the 14-points spread at the well-reviewed betting site, Heritage Sports has moved down to 13.5 and as low as 13 at other top outlets.
The Patriots are a tough team to beat on any given Sunday in any stadium in the World. But they are particularly tough while playing just outside of Boston. The Pats are putting up a little over 32 points per game in Gillette Stadium. Since 2015, New England is 31-5 straight up and 24-10-2 against the spread at home.
So, I don’t have rose-tinted glasses on. I don’t think that our Jets are going to win (though it isn’t outside of possibilities). But I can make a strong case for the Jets to cover a double-digit number. Sure, the Jets haven’t won in Foxboro since 2011. And they are a smidge under 50% (4-5-1) against the spread while at Gillette but they are a re-surging team and 13.5 is a lot of points.
As I stated in the last article, where I called that the Packers vs. Jets would break the total, the Patriots have shown signs of weakness this season and are not the well-oiled winning machine they once were. This season’s campaign is the worst the Pats have had since 2009.
The Patriots are giving up 21 points per game this season. The Jets offense is averaging 22 per game. But over the last 4 games, the Gang has averaged 28.75. The Pats have one of the better home defenses in the league, but even if all the numbers fall within season averages, the stats would still be hard-pressed to cover 13.5.
I’m really wavering on the fence here with both the point spread and the Total. I have a feeling that the Jets are going to cover or push if we buy up to 14 but the Patriots have been dominant as double-digit favorites. Over the last ten games when listed at home as favorites of 10 or more New England has won by an average margin of 18 points. That stat makes me nervous, especially when coupled with the fact that the Jets have lost by a margin of 12 points on average over their last 10 in Foxboro. However, as I said above, this is a resurging Jets team. Many say they have quit on their coach, and they have but I don’t think that they have quit on themselves. They will want to finish strong.
The trends are leaning towards the UNDER but I have a feeling that the Jets put up at least 20 and the Pats put up around 30. So I am going to watch the number. It Opened at 48 and has plummeted down to 45.5 already.
You can get the Jets +14.5 for -130 at 5Dimes, but adding that much juice bite too deeply into the profit margin. OVER at Heritage where the line is +13.5 -105, we can buy up to 14 to force a push if the Pats win by two touchdowns for about -115.
Take the Jets +14 and OVER 45. I am going to watch the number to see if I can get it lower than 45.5, as 94% of the bets have been coming in on the UNDER. But soon, wise guys will start coming back on the OVER (like I am already talking about) and drive that number back up … so timing is everything.