Can the Jets Cover 9.5 Against the Patriots?

From a betting perspective, this is a difficult game to handicap. Most of the top sportsbooks have the New England Patriots listed as favorites by 9.5 points. You can check the sportsbetting ag review to see if they have the best options at this price. But still, many of the trends for this game are conflicting … which leaves me … conflicted.

A Bye For Both

Last time around we talked about the current mess that the Jets were in after they got trounced by the by the Buffalo Bills as big favorites. So we can only hope that Todd Bowles and the rest of the coaching staff have been working heavily on the receivers getting some separation and figuring out how to get the players back up to one-hundred percent as far as motivation is concerned.

My opinion on the Patriots hasn’t changed since last week. They have shown some serious chinks in their armor and have a beatable defense, the Mariota and the Tennessee Titans showed us that. But we know that Brady and Belichick have not been idle in their time off. They have certainly been preparing for every eventuality over the last two weeks. This thought brings us to the conflicting stats as well.

The Conundrum

The Jets have played surprisingly well as home underdogs. They have covered the point spread eight times out of their last eleven games as underdogs in East Rutherford. And the Jets have covered the number in each of the last five games that they have played against the Pats. These initial numbers have people laying down cash on Gang Green, even though they have lost four games straight.

Here’s the catch though. The New England Patriots have been astounding after they take a loss. Not only have they won nine out of their last ten games after a loss, but they have covered the point spread nine times as well. To make matters more difficult, Tom Brady and the Pats are 8-2 against the spread when the number is 9.5 or larger. So, they love to step up and cover big numbers. But, against the Jets, they are only 2-7-1 against the spread.

More Numbers

The Patriots are putting up an average of 28 points per game and the Jets just 20. So these are the basic numbers that most people are looking at. But the Pats are actually only scoring an average of 20.60 points while on the road. The Jet’s are scoring exactly 23 points per game at home. So, in this situation, the Jets actually win the point differential margin. Wait … it gets even harder to handicap because the Patriots have allowed 25.60 points per game on the road, and the Jets 29.60 while at home. So … I’m starting to lean more towards taking the under than risking the spread.

The UNDER has cashed in four out of the five of the most recent meetings between these teams. And it’s been set fairly high at 46.5. If both of these teams stick to their recent offensive trends, we could see an easy cash on the UNDER. But it’s Brady and Belichick after a loss which takes my confidence down a bit.

I lean the Jets to cover 9.5 and lean towards UNDER 46.5. If I had to make a play, I’d say take the Jets ATS, but keep in mind that it is risky.

Justin Hilbert

See Full Bio