Week 5 Jets Pick: The Denver Broncos Come to MetLife

The last few weeks have squashed my dreams like a football-field-sized nightmare boot from hell. My dreams were not even overly ambitious. In fact, they were fairly modest. I just had high hopes that the Jets would come in second in the AFC East. A wildcard berth would have been nice, but that wasn’t even a real consideration … just a fleeting thought.

The Broncos are coming to town, and the Gang will get a chance for a little bit of redemption and the opportunity to get to a 2-3 record. We like to ‘spread’ the love around so that you can get a feel for different books, so today we are using sportsbetting.ag you can learn more about them by clicking the blue words that are trailing behind the end of this sentence.

What’s This I See?

The Jets are favored? Oh my, oh my. Yes. As of Wednesday morning, the New York Jets are favored by one point over the Denver Broncos. It’s bitter-sweet though because Gang Green actually opened up as 2.5-point favorites on Sunday but the world has been all over the Broncos to cover that number and has driven the line into a free-fall towards a pick ‘em.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line close on Sunday with the Broncos as slight favorites. As disheartening as this may seem, the one thing that we have to keep in mind about this is public action is driving the line and the general public tends to lose a lot more than they win … a lot more. The real sports geniuses said that the Jets are 2.5-points better. So, nanner-nanner ‘public’, I thumb my nose at thee.

The Jets performance against the Jags was a downright embarrassing affair. Though, I expected it to be a rough one considering the Jaguars defensive capabilities.

Interesting Stats That You Should Know

• The Jets are 7-2 (77.8%) at home since 2017.
• The Broncos are 7-3 against the Jets and 3-0 over the last three.
• But Denver has only won and covered once in the last 11 road games (1-11 SU & ATS).
• The Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS over their last five.
• The Broncos are 0-5 as away-dogs since 2017.
• The Jets are 7-3 against the spread over their last ten at home.
• The total has gone over in five out of the last six Broncos-Jets games in MetLife.

A Losing Battle … or Battle of Losers

The Broncos have dropped two games straight, and the Jets have lost three in a row. Both teams will be looking to end their slide on Sunday at 1:00 PM. I would like to run the nearest staircase, bust out the top door and shout from the rooftops, “The Jets are going to cover the spread and win at home against the Broncos!” But I’m not so sure. Nothing that I have seen over the last few weeks has shown me that the Jets are capable of beating any team right now.

The Broncos are playing early —for them. The 1 PM ET kickoff is 11 AM Mountain Time. But the Jets are a woeful 1-10 when they play early afternoon games. That said, we shouldn’t put too much stock into that trend as this is a vastly different team than in prior seasons. But still, if you give any weight at all to that stat, it’s early for both teams. So, I have a feeling that this is going to be a sloppy game for both teams.

One more thing that gives me pause is the Denver defense. The Broncos are solid up front and the Jets have been an absolute mess when they overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage. I have a feeling that Von Miller and crew are going to force the Jets offense into another game of embarrassing mistakes and missteps. So, despite the fact that the Broncos are 0-5 ATS as underdogs on the road, I am inclined to think that they are going to bounce back and beat the Jets in a close game in New Jersey.

If you are dead set on backing the Jets, wait until the last moment on Sunday morning and see if you can’t pick up the Jets as underdogs. But, from a business perspective, I have to bet against the Jets this weekend.

Prediction: Take the Broncos + 1

This way if the Jets win by one, you get a push and if the Broncos win or tie you at least win some money. Come on Jets, prove me wrong!

Justin Hilbert

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