Darrelle Revis Trade Value Overrated

With Darrelle Revis trade rumor stories being written non-stop lately many have been speculating as to what the Jets could get in return for the All-Pro cornerback.

Have seen examples such as: two first round picks, a first round along with a third round pick in 2013 plus a conditional 2014 pick or a second and third round pick in 2013 and a first round pick in 2014, but is Revis’ trade market overvalued?

There are many factors which deflate Revis’ trade value the biggest being he’s rehabilitating from a serious knee injury, a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL).  There is no way to know how this injury recovery will go as time tables vary from player-to-player.  There could be a setback or an unforeseen problem which could slow his return.

The next issue is Revis’ current contract which any trading team would obtain.  The contract ends after the 2013 season and prohibits using any type of restriction (franchise or transition tags) guaranteeing Revis hits the open market in 2014.  So why would anyone trade away viable resources, especially high draft picks, to obtain an injured player for one year?

A team could do a sign and trade which Revis signs a new contract before being traded.  This ensures Revis would be with the team beyond 2013 but requires a huge financial commitment in order to get him to agree to sign a new contract rather than test free agency.  Any such commitment means the acquiring team will need resources (draft picks) to ensure they have high quality but low priced players to offset the cost of Revis’ big contract.

Clark Judge of CBSsports.com said it best in a recent article on Revis:

The popular perception is that Revis would cost someone a first-rounder and then some, but I ran into a couple of GMs at the combine who swore they wouldn’t start by offering anything higher than a second-rounder.

First of all, Revis is coming off a serious knee surgery. More important, he wants top dollar for the position — and I don’t mean cornerback. I mean as a defender, which puts him in the $16 million-a-year neighborhood of Mario Williams.

The San Francisco 49ers have been mentioned as a team that would attempt to acquire Revis since they have a vast number of draft picks and added more by trading quarterback Alex Smith.

All teams have offseason decisions to make and the 49ers are no exception.  Some issues facing the 49ers are the need to upgrade their wide receivers along with trying to retain Pro Bowl safety Dashon Goldson.

Don’t see why the 49ers would give up valuable resources to rent an injured player when they have other pressing needs but their general manager Trent Baalke lays out the teams building strategy in the following quote:

Trent Baalke said, “You can’t pay everybody, and you certainly can’t pay everybody if you’re overpaying others.”

Source: The Sacramento Bee / Matt Barrows

Several sources are reporting the 49ers will not pursue Revis:

why i DON'T see revis-49ers: sf doesn't believe in rent-a-player philosophy 4 big-$$ guys + unlikely to dole out huge $$ on longterm deal.

— Jim Trotter (@JimTrotter_NFL) February 28, 2013

ESPN's Chris Mortensen said a source told him the 49ers are not inclined to pursue Darrelle Revis at this time. So there's that.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 28, 2013

Given Revis’ history of holdouts, high contract demands and being injured decreases his trade value and it’s not where many believe it to be.  Teams are more likely to shy away from him given the slow growth of the salary cap making signing high price players while managing finances even more difficult.  It looks like the Jets will have little leverage in negotiating a trade and will ultimately end up losers no matter how any of the potential Revis scenarios play out.

Dennis Agapito

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