NY Jets Draft Pick Scenarios For Week 17

After the loss to the San Diego Chargers I am starting to think the Jets want to get the highest pick that they can and so far that would put them into a 5-way tie for the 6th pick in the draft. This scenario involves 7 games.

The scenario

Jets lose
Browns win
Titans win
Cardinals win
Buccaneers win
Panthers win
Chargers win

If the above happens we’ll have the Jets, Bills, Browns, Titans, & Cardinals at 6-10.

Current Strength of Schedule

Jets 120-118-2
Titans 123-117
Bills 116-122-2
Browns 120-120
Cardinals 133-103-4
Chargers 110-130
Buccaneers 121-118-1
Panthers 124-116

Strength of Schedule after the above scenario

Jets 125-121-2
Bills 119-126-2
Titans 125-121
Cardinals 134-107-4
Browns 121-123
Panthers with loss 129-119
Buccaneers with loss 126-121-1

Remaining games and their impact on Strength of Schedule

Ravens at Bengals
Browns 2-2

Bears at Lions
Titans 1-1
Cardinals 1-1
Panthers 1-0/0-1

Texans at Colts
Jets 1-1
Bills 1-1
Titans 2-2
Browns 0-1/1-0

Eagles at Giants
Cardinals 1-0/0-1
Browns 1-1
Panthers 1-1
Buccaneers 1-1

Chiefs at Broncos
Bills 1-0/0-1
Browns 1-1
Panthers 1-1
Buccaneers 1-1

Packers at Vikings
Titans 1-1
Cardinals 1-1
Buccaneers 0-1/1-0

Dolphins at Patriots
Jets 2-2
Bills 2-2
Titans 1-1
Cardinals 1-1

Rams at Seahawks
Jets 1-1
Bills 1-1
Cardinals 2-2
Panthers 0-1/1-0
Buccaneers 1-0/0-1

Cowboys at Redskins
Browns 1-1
Panthers 1-1
Buccaneers 1-1

Best case scenario
Chiefs win
Colts win
Eagles win
Rams or Vikings win

SOS after all games are played with best case scenario
Jets 129-125-2 or 130-126
Bills 124-130-2 or 125-131
Titans 130-126
Cardinals 140-112-4 or 142-114
Browns 127-128
Panthers in worst case scenario 132-124
Buccaneers if both Rams & Vikings win 131-124-1
Buccaneers if only Rams or Vikings win 130-125-1

After that the Jets and Titans are tied for the 8th pick after both Buffalo and the Browns beat them out on SOS and the Jets would win the tiebreaker based on having the worse conference record (4-8 vs. 5-7). The Chargers would easily finish with a worse SOS so they can’t lose against the Raiders if the Jets want to get the #8 pick. The Panther can lose and won’t impact the Jets chances. The Buccaneers can lose but the Rams or Vikings have to win or else they would edge out the Jets by a half game.

To recap the only scenario in which the Jets can get the 8th pick if the following occurs:

Jets lose
Browns win
Titans win
Cardinals win
Buccaneers win
Chargers win
Chiefs win
Colts win
Eagles win

or

Jets lose
Browns win
Titans win
Cardinals win
Chargers win
Chiefs win
Colts win
Eagles win
Rams/Vikings win

Moving on to the worst case scenario, if the Jets win and with some help the worst they can do is be in a 5-way tie for the 16th pick.

The scenario

Jets win
Steelers lose
Dolphins lose
Saints lose
Buccaneers lose

If the above happens then the Jets, Dolphins, Steelers, Panthers, & Saints would be tied at 7-9. The Chargers can also finish at 7-9 but the Chargers can’t beat the Jets in SOS so they won’t be a factor aside from their winning the game.

Current SOS

Jets 120-118-2
Dolphins 118-120-2
Steelers 115-125
Chargers 110-130
Saints 124-115-1
Panthers 124-116

SOS after the above scenario

Jets 122-123-2
Dolphins 122-122-2
Steelers 118-125
Chargers 114-133
Saints 128-117-1
Panthers 126-120

Remaining games and their impact on SOS

Raiders at Chargers
Jets 0-1/1-0
Dolphins 1-0/0-1
Steelers 1-1
Chargers 2-0/0-2
Saints 1-1
Panthers 1-1

Ravens at Bengals
Dolphins 0-1/1-0
Steelers 2-2
Chargers 1-1

Jaguars at Titans
Jets 1-1
Dolphins 1-1
Steelers 0-1/1-0
Chargers 0-1/1-0

Bears at Lions
Panthers 1-0/0-1

Texans at Colts
Jets 1-1
Dolphins 1-1

Eagles at Giants
Steelers 1-1
Panthers 1-1
Saints 1-1

Chiefs at Broncos
Steelers 1-1
Chargers 2-2
Panthers 1-1
Saints 1-1

Packers at Vikings
Saints 1-0/0-1

Rams at Seahawks
Jets 1-1
Dolphins 1-1
Panthers 0-1/1-0

Cardinals at 49ers
Jets 1-1
Dolphins 1-1
Saints 0-1/1-0

Cowboys at Redskins
Steelers 1-1
Panthers 1-1
Saints 1-1

Best case scenario
Chargers win
Ravens win
Jaguars win
Lions win
Vikings win
Rams win
Cardinals win

SOS after best case scenario
Jets 127-127-2
Dolphins 126-128-2
Steelers 124-132
Chargers 117-139
Saints 132-123-1
Panthers 130-126

What we’ve learned here is that it would be better off for the Saints to beat the Panthers as the Jets would lose to both of them in the event of a tie so for the actual worst case scenario the Jets would have to want the Saints to win to only be bumped up 1 spot rather than 2 spots. The Buccaneers also have to lose, otherwise they too would also finish ahead of the Jets in SOS as they would finish 3 games ahead of the Jets in my calculations.
So to sum it up the worst case scenario for the Jets is as follows:

Jets win
Dolphins lose
Steelers lose
Chargers win
Saints win
Buccaneers lose
Ravens win

If that happens then the Jets would be in a 4-way tie for the 15th pick which the Jets would lose to all 3 teams in and get the worst pick possible.

So in conclusion, the Jets as of today can get any pick between the 8th and the 15th pick.

Chris Menn

I'm a 27 year old Jets fan from Massachusetts who has been following the Jets since 1990. I used to run my own Jets blog called Chris' Jets fan blog and worked on JetsCentral.com before I joined JetNation.com. Still waiting for that Super Bowl...

See Full Bio